COE Renewal Price | PQP Prediction for July 2021
We claimed in our previous prediction last month that it would be a cinch for the average man in the street to guess the direction of the PQP renewal price for June 2021.
And so, it did go as expected according to our predicted direction, Cat A and Cat B both up by four digit amounts, and Cat C, down, but by only a small amount. (Ok, we admit, Cat C was a bit more difficult for most people to guess).
For renewing your vehicle this month, this is
June 2021 COE Renewal PQP
Cat A $45,272
Our prediction was for Cat A to be $46,105.
Cat B $53,932
Our prediction was for Cat B to be $54,000.
Cat C $40,324
Our prediction was for Cat C to be $40,473.
Where Is COE Headed From Here?
Let’s start with the latest bidding, the first COE bid for the month of June 2021 to get an idea.
COE Bidding Results For 1st Bid June 2021
Cat A $48,510
COE for Cat A went up by $6,709 (+16.05%).
Cat A is back up to the $48k level and slightly more than the $48,002 level two bids ago. In between these two bids was the 2nd bid of May 2021 at $41,801.
Was the 2nd bid of May just a knee jerk reaction to the announcement to P2HA at that time, and that this price level of $48k is really the market’s actual level?
This is really a strong rebound, and we started to see the number of bids pile into Cat A and exceed the quota of 858 pieces much earlier than all other categories. Cat A ended with a total 1,439 bids, or demand of 1.67 times the available quota.
Cat B $60,109
Cat B is up by $2,020 (+3.48%) compared to the previous bid.
My personal opinion for Cat B was that the sharp rise in the second bid of April 2021 might lead to a consolidation phase afterwards where the price would ease off, but this has so far not gone below the $58k level. And in the latest bid, we see that it has gone up above $60k level once again.
It would seem that $60,000 is the new normal for Cat B – car buyers might be getting accustomed to the price at this level.
And, certainly, the VES additional surcharge that kicks into effect on the 1st of July 2021, causing many petrol cars to be in Band C to cost $5,000 more, is having a similar effect on the Cat B COE, similar to what had happened in Cat C earlier when diesel vehicles were facing at $10,000 surcharge due to CEVS. Car salespeople are certainly chanting “Buy before the price increase” causing the current strong sentiment.
Cat B ended with a total 1,107 bids, or demand of 1.36 times the available quota.
Cat C $37,002
Cat C has gone down by $4,699 or (-11.27%) for this bid.
Cat C, if you guys have been following our past articles, has been alternating between rise and fall in prices. This is the first time we see the Cat C price go down for the third bid in a row for this year.
This instability was due to the fact regulatory changes were made to the emissions rules for commercial vehicles, resulting in a hefty penalty of $10,000 for all diesel vehicles that did not meet the new strict CVES rules that kicked in on 1st of April 2021.
The combined fall for the latest three bids is a total reduction of $6,999 in COE pricing. It seems that the demand generated by the rule change and the subsequent ups and downs due to ETS is starting to stabilize, and moving forward we will find a more normalized Cat C.
We are not saying that Cat C will be staying at this level, but rather, that the effects of these regulatory changes are already passed.
Sentiment And COE Price
We had feedback from a reader on our Facebook page that the COE levels would drop, as the situation is dim for quite a number of us, especially now that the government has called for stricter measures once more. I’m am sure quite a number of us feel similarly.
With P2HA (Phase 2 Heightened Awareness), once again a section of business is once more suffering from lack of footfall – most noticeably, the retail and F&B segments, especially those that operate in the office areas in town. Plus, tourism related businesses are still on the verge of hopeless. But this does not mean that everyone is doing badly.
Those who managed to keep their jobs, which is the majority of us in Singapore, and working for an equal amount of salary as before, are actually likely to be having more savings in their bank accounts than before Circuit Breaker.
This should be the case, given that overseas spending on expensive holidays spending has been literally cut down to nothing. And over time, this should lead to greater local consumption, spending and demand for… yes, cars!
Hence, we are unable to forecast much of a reduction in the COE levels.
We Also See That COE Quota Is Going to Tighten Once More
Having already reduced in the last two quota quarters (announced) of February to April and May to July 2021, it would likely once more have a significant double digit percentage decrease in COE quota quarter for the months of August to October 2021.
Why? Unless there has been exceptional numbers of cars scrapped and not renewed in the current time (April to June 2021), those COE which would become the recycled COE quota for the COE quarter starting August 2021, the number of COE starting from August would likely be less than the current number of COE.
This is because the redistributed unused COE from the three month CB period without bidding would end in July this year (supposedly to end in June 2021, but was extended one month to match the COE quota quarter). This redistribution period is for one year after COE bidding restarted.
The magnitude of the reduction we are looking at is a reduction of:
286 Cat A (-17.26%),
288 Cat B (-17.80%), and
104 Cat C (-33.12%)
being removed from the quota monthly. (Note: The above percentage of change is calculated using the current quota monthly average as the base figure)
Needless to say, the above factor will be a push towards higher prices, and the following are the only factors we can foresee that may cause a softening of COE prices.
One, the rush-to-buy-now for Cat B due to VES penalties will be normalizing after July, and two, the same effect is being seen in Cat C, where the lower Cat C may continue for a bit at the lower levels.
However, with businesses moving more and more towards online orders, we foresee Cat C prices firming up in the near future, just like how motorcycle COE have been getting to new highs recently, and for the same reason – door to door delivery of online orders.
If You Are Looking to Renew Your Vehicle COE
Then you will like to know how the above will affect COE renewal price, and SG Cash N Cars prediction for the month of July 2021 and after.
Simply contact us by using the Contact Form on this page and leave us your contact number, or click on WhatsApp button now if you are using your mobile to text us directly and we can discuss your individual needs.
Everyone’s situation at COE renewal is different, and we know it enough to know you need a COE renewal solution that works for you!
We carry out COE renewals for the many happy people who have used our services and PQP monitoring, and we are sure you will not be disappointed with our guidance on how and when to renew to make a significant difference in the price that you pay for renewal.
How? Here is a clue.
And what we have written there in the article we do professionally for our customers, with added finesse and experience gained from having helped hundreds with their COE renewal.
We call it PQP monitoring.
No other COE renewal service will do this for you. They all compete on admin fee pricing, which is really insignificant and not what your main focus should be.
Why? One company says its fee is $450, another says it is $375. If you picked the company that charges admin at $375, did you just save yourself $75? I don’t think that’s exciting at all!
When you have already decided to renew your COE for sure, register with us and we will help you out with when to enter the renewal market, and that is the key to achieving savings for your COE! We have had customers who have save thousands and a small few who have save $10,000+ using our PQP Monitoring.
Can you save the same? It depends on the opportunity. We can explain when you contact us for a chat!
Not only that, we are voted one of the best COE renewal services in Singapore. Check reviews of what customers say of our services here.
Contact us early so it is not a rush and so you can make use of our free included PQP monitoring to your advantage!
You can reach out to us by filling in the below contact form or simply clicking on WhatsApp button to chat with us.
There are those who are still undecided on whether to renew or scrap or trade-in, we understand. You’re welcome to contact us for a chat too, and we will guide you along with the decision, like we have helped all those before you who have gone through their COE renewal.
Did you know? Sometimes a lower interest rate loan can cost more than a loan with slightly higher interest! But we will be here to assist, so don’t worry!