COE Renewal Price | PQP Prediction for March 2020

COE Renewal Price | PQP Prediction for March 2020
Has the Wuhan Virus Derailed COE prices?

It’s exciting times for those who are looking to renew their car COE! The COE bidding prices for new car buyers are looking in your favour – the first bid of February 2020 prices went south for both Cat A and Cat B. And so, those looking to renew, you will likely be paying less than earlier months for the month of March, is that correct? Let’s see how things are going first and some of the contributing factors to look at which will contribute to March 2020 PQP prices.

First, this is how the bids for February’s first bid went:

COE Bidding Result | 1st Bid February 2020

Cat A $30,010

Down by $5,000 (-14.28%) compared to 2nd bid January 2020. Total bids received 1,204 with 977 successful bidders.

Cat B $30,890

Down by $6,815 (-18.07%) compared to 2nd bid January 2020. Total bids received 1,173 with 980 successful bidders.

Cat C $25,013

Up by $1,202 (+5.18%) compared to 2nd bid January 2019. Total bids received 504 with 314 successful bidders.

Category C is interesting in that the number of bidders has increased by 9.32% but the COE quantity is less than at the previous bid by 2.18%, the probable reason for making this the only Category in which COE cost has increased, compared to significant drops in the other two.

Open Cat $34,900

Down by $3,100 (-8.15%) compared to 2nd bid January 2020. Total bids received 525 with 330 successful bidders.

The Post New Year Syndrome Has Happened?

Yes and no, because although people expect post Chinese New Year to have softer bid prices for COE, it is not always the case. Weaken yes, but usually no sharp decline, which is what we have seen for Cat A and Cat B here.

The Straits Times has pointed the finger at the poor sentiment created by the Wuhan virus, and this may be the case, as people stay away from showrooms and minimise their time out of home.

However, the effect may not only be short term shrinkage in the showroom traffic, but over the longer term, if this virus pandemic continues, businesses become affected, staff bonuses are cut – including those of the civil service – and there is less disposable income for buying the next shiny performance model or any car at all.

If you have not noticed yet, tenants are asking and landlords are caving in and giving lower rents for fear the businesses under them close or move. There is surely expectation that things get worse before a turnaround.

Possible Bright Spark for COE?

There was mention in the Straits Times that more may be tempted to switch to cars from public transport to be safer from the virus, but we have doubts this would be happening, as our pragmatic countrymen almost all agree, this may take a few months to pass but no one is expecting this to be the norm one year from now. That being the case, car rentals are more likely that an outright purchase. So this may be a non-factor when it comes to COE bids.

Are Lower COE Levels Tempting Buyers Back to Showrooms in February?

This is probably a bigger factor than purchasers who are buying to be safe from the virus. We love a good bargain, and whenever there is a sharp decline in prices, the temptation is to sign on the dotted line while the car distributors offer a lower price.

Smart buyers? Or, not so easy, if you think about it more. Are you really able to buy a car at the low point?

There is some interest shown in new cars at this point, but nothing significant says our sources.

Still, we at SG Cash N Cars wager that there will be a rebound of the COE bid prices at the next bid, but to a smaller degree than the fall that we just had. Anyone want to bet?

So what does all the above mean for COE renewal prices for the coming month?

Prediction for COE Renewal Price March 2020

Cat A $33,041

Up by $3 (+0.00%, yes that small that it is less than two decimals points can show) compared to PQP for February 2020.

Cat B $35,583

Down by $2,488 (-6.53%) compared to PQP for February 2020.

Cat C $24,389

Down by $22 (+0.01%) compared to PQP for February 2020.

This is a real tough call for Cat A, given that the Cat A has plunged $5k, but we are saying that there will be a rise, by the slimmest of margins. If we are wrong, then this would be the first time we are wrong about the direction in which the COE renewal price is headed for any category. Yes, COE renewal prices do not always head in the same way you expected based on the latest COE bid prices. If Cat A is hardly moving in price, does it matter which month your choose, February or March 2020? We can help explain what happens when you do a COE renewal. Contact us using the form below or to your right and we will call you back.

Cat B is more predictable, and we predict we will be looking at very smiley faces of owners who have cars in Cat B due for renewal in March. But if your car is coming up for renewal in April or May, should you wait for just jump in and use March to renew your COE since it has fallen by a significant amount? If you are in doubt, feel free to contact us for advice on when to renew with our COE renewal loan packages – the most well rounded package out on the market.

Call 92782880 to enquire or click on WhatsApp if after office hours. We will get back to you soon as we get the chance!

COE Renewal Done Right, No One More Recommended in Singapore Than SG Cash N Cars