We are at the time of April where we are able to calculate the May 2018 PQP results and here are the confirmed figures:
Cat A May PQP $38,192 for 10 years, $19,096 for 5 years
Cat B May PQP $38,712 for 10 years, $19,356 for 5 years
Cat C May PQP $35,729 for 10 years, $17,865 for 5 years
So how close are the actual results above compared to our predictions? We predicted the following:
Cat A May PQP $37,940 for 10 years – within $300 of the actual result
Cat B May PQP $38,758 for 10 years – within $100 of the actual result
Cat C May PQP $35,695 for 10 years – within $50 of the actual result
We are pretty chuffed with our predictions, getting it very close for two categories.
The rise in Cat A in the most recent bid pulled the result higher than our expected. Could it mean Cat A COE is on the rise? We are waiting to see, and at least one factor seems to indicate that dealers have more orders on hand than two weeks ago, for which the Vitas of the vehicles are ready and dealers are starting to bid for – there are more submitted bids that are unsuccessful than compared to the first bid of April 2018. What this could indicate is slightly more upward pressure in the coming bid of May.
Add to that the announcement that there is a shrink in the quota for May to July period by close to 4% – total COE for this period stands at 24,614 compared to 25,636 of the quarter prior to May July quarter – and the trend does look like COE levels may move upwards from here for the short term (next 3 months).
Happy watching and hope the COE goes in the direction you want!