Where will PQP or COE renewal prices head to in the coming month of March 2019? We have just celebrated the Chinese New Year and had the New Year rush by many dealerships to deliver cars to their customers.
Did this push up the COE prices?
Looking at COE levels, Cat B has moved up significantly. And this has caused the 3 month moving average to go up – or in common English, COE renewal price for Cat B has now increased by $598 for February 2019 when compared to one month earlier. This is the first reversal in direction for COE renewal prices in more than a year! Since PQP is the moving average, and those who dabble in stocks will know, when the moving average starts reversing, this could be the start of a new trend.
Cat A however, is remaining relatively muted, with the second January bid moving slightly up, but the first bid of February slightly down. I would not say that these are significant movements, and the longer term weak sentiment still remains for Cat A, unlike Cat B.
Any other factors coming into play?
We mentioned in our year end review of 2018 and forecast for 2019 that a number factors will be a pushing the COE one direction or the other, but we see these few now coming into play, more so than the others:
COE Quota Reduction
The reduction has affected Cat B more than Cat A, a very uneven reduction in the quota was announced recently by LTA – the announcement is here.
While the quota for both Cat A and Cat B will fell by single digit percentage points -9.1% and -2.9% respectively for this quarter, the significant reduction to look at is in Open Cat COE quota with a much bigger drop of 26.4% less COE than the quarter before. This coupled with the fact that Open Cat is usually used to register the more expensive Cat B, means that Cat B will feel the squeeze when Open Cat COE quota fall significantly.
New Cat B Models
So many nice shiny and new models in this category B, what is going to happen? I think we all know, this would probably lead to more sales in Cat B and more demand for this category of COE.
Chinese New Year Holidays
However, the holiday rest for Chinese New Year has brought a hard earned break to the salesmen – so also car bookings – and this could be a temporary short term lower demand for the upcoming bid.
Can I know the prediction now?
Yes, so coming right up, here is our prediction of the COE Renewal price for March 2019.
PQP Cat A Down, $25,341
Down by $386 compared to Cat A PQP of the month of January 2018.
PQP Cat B Up, $32,869
Up by $936 compared to Cat B PQP of the month of January 2018.
PQP Cat C Down, $26,587
Down by $789 compared to Cat C PQP of the month of January 2018.
New colours to help you see at a glance: Green is good for you (price went down) and red, not so great!
So good luck and all the best at catching that most opportune time to renew your COE!
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